A cache of leaked Pentagon documents recently confirmed a secret that many have suspected for years, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly admitted that Canada is unlikely to ever meet the two per cent military defence spending target recommended by NATO.
Amid this, a new study from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians less enthusiastic about their perception of the country’s international reputation than they have been in recent years. Half of Canadians (51%) say Canada has a good or very good reputation abroad, while one-quarter say it is poor or very poor (25%) and one-quarter (24%) say it is average. Notably, there has been a 33-point drop since 2018 in the proportion offering a positive view.
While there is concern that Trudeau’s private admission on Canada’s willingness to spend on defence might damage the country’s standing among allies – two-in-five (42%) say this – Canadians are divided as to whether their nation should strive to satisfy the defence-spending goal set by NATO members. Presented with the current and projected percentages and figures in billions of dollars required to hit two per cent, the largest group – 47 per cent – would increase spending to the NATO goal, while another seven per cent would increase spending further, beyond that recommendation. That said, one-in-three Canadians (34%) say that the current spending level of 1.3 per cent of GDP is fine, and one-in-eight (12%) say even that is too high and it should be reduced. The proportion saying Canada should increase its spending to two per cent or higher has increased 11 points since 2019.
Among the largest drivers of divergence on this issue are age and gender. Women and men younger than 35 are much more likely than those older to say that spending should be reduced, while men older than 34 are most supportive of increase to or beyond the two per cent target.
More Key Findings:
- One-in-five (19%) Canadians believe Trudeau admitting their country will never reach NATO defence-spending target enhances Canada’s reputation by being straightforward while three-in-ten (29%) believe the comment will have neither a positive nor negative effect on international evaluation of Canada.
- Seven-in-ten (69%) of past Conservative voters believe Trudeau risks damaging Canada’s reputation with his defence spending admission. Fewer, but still one-quarter, of past NDP (26%) and Liberal (26%) voters agree.
- In 2018, three-in-ten Canadians (29%) said Canada’s reputation had improved over the past decade, while one-quarter (25%) said it had worsened. Now, half say it has worsened (49%) and just 12 per cent say it has improved.
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from May 8 – 10, 2023 among a representative randomized sample of 1,603 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
