New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the PCPO increasing its vote advantage over the opposition despite mounting criticism from Ontarians on the government’s performance on key issues, not to mention widespread disapproval of Premier Doug Ford.
Two-in-five (40%) Ontarians would vote for the PCs if an election were held today, while statistically equal groups of one-quarter say they would vote NDP (25%) or Liberal (23%).
Ford’s party continue to hold a vote intention advantage despite more than four-in-five residents believing it has performed poorly on health care (80%), the rising cost of living (81%) and housing affordability (84%), the top three issues as selected by Ontarians. In fact, since the fall of 2022, more than seven-in-ten Ontarians have said the government has performed poorly on all three top issues. Despite this, the government remains well ahead of their rivals.
Perhaps at issue is that the NDP and Liberals have struggled to generate momentum after changes in leadership since the last provincial election. Three-in-10 (30%) Ontarians say they don’t know enough to evaluate Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, while two-in-five (39%) are not familiar enough with NDP leader Marit Stiles to offer an opinion. For those who do assess either leader, their opinion is more negative than positive (Crombie, -22 net favourability; Stiles, -15).
The health-care system has continued to struggle despite billions of dollars of investment by the provincial government. Instances of so-called “hallway health care” in the province’s hospitals have reached new highs under Ford. Meanwhile, 2.5 million in Ontario reportedly don’t have access to a family doctor.
Ford set a target to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031, and took steps to address the province’s housing affordability crisis by setting aside $1.6 billion for key infrastructure for new homes and adding a $1.2 billion pool of money for municipalities to access if they hit certain targets for new constructions. Yet house construction has slowed from 2023, and the province is only halfway to the pace needed to hit Ford’s 1.5 million goal.
Ford has taken a tough-on-crime approach to address rampant auto theft and repeat offenders in the province. The Ontario government said it would suspend licences for convicted auto thieves, in a move that some have criticized for doing little to deter theft. Ford also promised to appoint judges who would be less lenient with bail, in a move that has been derided for eroding judicial independence.
The Ford government has also been criticized for the expansion of alcohol sales into convenience stores, the still ongoing Greenbelt scandal and the closure of the Ontario Science Centre. And it is worth noting that data for this survey was taken prior to Ford told the province’s homeless to “get off your A-S-S and start working like everyone else”.
Older Ontarians are the largest source of the PC’s support. The Liberals fare better among older Ontarians than younger ones, but max out at 30 per cent of vote intention among any demographic. The NDP are most popular among younger Ontarians and women:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Sept. 12-18, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 858 Ontarian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
